Pulling ESPN scoreboards & fitting ratings…
How the model works
- Every completed NFL game this season is pulled from ESPN with its closing line; ratings are solved iteratively, adjusted for opponent strength, with recent weeks weighted more.
- Spreads blend two ratings — 30% points scored/allowed (blowouts dampened past 21) and 70% a margin rating (dampened past 14). Spread picks need a 3+ pt gap from the line (A ≥ 5, B ≥ 4, C ≥ 3) and both teams to have played 2+ games.
- Totals fade recent scoring: NFL teams that have been going way over (or under) tend to come back to the line, so the model leans the other way. Over/Under is flagged at 3+ points of edge.
- Winners blend the model and the betting line 50/50. Home field is 1.8 points; win chance uses a 13.5-point normal curve. Settings were tuned on this season's finished games.
For entertainment only. Lines shown come from ESPN's feed (DraftKings/ESPN BET).